The death of the steep click curve: Google CTR in 2026
AI Overviews now sit on roughly half of US search results, and the classic position-based click curve has flattened. If your forecasts still use historic CTR tables, they are likely off by 30–40%.
- 48–50%
- of US queries now trigger an AI Overview
- -58%
- CTR for position 1 when an AIO is present
- 62–83%
- of AI citations go to pages outside the top 10
- +120%
- clicks per impression for cited vs uncited brands
Clean SERPs still behave like 2019. They are just becoming rare.
On a clean results page with no AI module or rich feature, the classic curve holds: position 1 takes 39.8% of clicks, position 2 takes 18.7%, and the top three collectively capture 68.7% of the click pool. But AI Overviews now appear on 48–50% of US queries, making them the most encountered AI feature on the internet across 2 billion monthly users. When one triggers, Ahrefs' 300,000-keyword study finds a 58% CTR reduction for the top-ranking page.
Google CTR by position: clean SERP vs AI Overview
| Position | Clean SERP CTR | With AI Overview | AIO impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 39.8% | 13.0% – 20.0% | -58% |
| #2 | 18.7% | 7.0% – 12.0% | -50.8% |
| #3 | 10.2% | 8.0% – 10.0% | -46.4% |
| #4 | 7.2% | 6.0% – 7.0% | -38.8% |
| #5 | 5.1% | 4.0% – 5.0% | -32.6% |
| #6 | 4.4% | 4.0% – 5.0% | -30.5% |
| #7 | 3.0% | 3.0% – 4.0% | -29.7% |
| #8 | 2.1% | 2.0% – 3.0% | -28.8% |
| #9 | 1.9% | 2.0% – 3.0% | -29.7% |
| #10 | 1.6% | 2.0% – 3.0% | -19.4% |
The most consequential detail is the compression between the top and bottom of page one. Position 1 CTR fell by nearly a third year-over-year, while positions 6–10 saw an average 30% increase in click-throughs — users scroll past the summary and click lower results to verify or expand what Google told them.
AI Overview saturation is a monetisation decision
BrightEdge's vertical analysis shows Google saturating informational queries while protecting the transactional space where ads earn: coverage swings from 88% in healthcare to roughly 4% in e-commerce.
Healthcare
88%YMYL informational queries are near-fully summarised
Education
83%Grew from 18% coverage year-over-year
B2B technology
82%4 in 5 informational SaaS keywords summarised
E-commerce
4%Down from 29% — Google shields transactional SERPs
Being cited is the new page one
In 2024, about 76% of AI Overview citations came from pages ranking in the organic top 10. That overlap has collapsed to 17–38%, meaning 62–83% of citations now go to pages that do not rank on page one. Just 15 domains capture 68% of all AI citations, content refreshed within 30 days earns 3.2x more citations, and 44.2% of citations are pulled from the first 30% of a document. On AIO SERPs, cited brands receive 120% more organic clicks per impression than uncited brands.
- YouTube23.3%
- Reddit21%
- Wikipedia18.4%
- Brand-owned sites (combined)31%
Desktop rebound, mobile squeeze
Desktop: +10.54 pp
Advanced Web Ranking's Q1 2026 data shows combined CTR growth of 10.54 percentage points across the first five desktop positions, with branded searches up 1.99–5.78 pp across the top 10. Desktop users remain high-intent researchers who still click into deep content.
Mobile: -2.20 pp at position 1
Mobile organic CTR is compressing steadily — unbranded position 1 dropped 3.07 pp. In Law, Government & Politics, mobile position 1 fell 9.03 pp while the same market's desktop top six grew a combined 21.00 pp. In Family & Parenting, desktop position 1 gained 7.05 pp while the mobile top three lost a combined 8.88 pp.
The 2026 playbook
- 01
Rethink traffic forecasting
Retire flat-rate CTR assumptions. Model by SERP intent: an 82% AIO-saturated B2B tech keyword and a 4% saturated e-commerce keyword cannot share a curve.
- 02
Target featured snippets deliberately
Compressed position 1 still loses to the snippet, which averages a 42.9% CTR. Answer the query in the opening paragraph, then use clean tables and numbered lists.
- 03
Structure content for the AI crawler
44.2% of AIO citations are pulled from the first 30% of a document. Front-load definitions, figures and conclusions instead of burying the lede.
- 04
Build multi-platform authority
YouTube and Reddit together hold 44.3% of AI search citations. Visibility work has to run off-domain as well as on it.
- 05
Run a 30-day refresh cycle
Content updated within 30 days earns 3.2x more citations. Put your top traffic assets on a rolling audit.
Frequently asked questions
What is the average CTR for position 1 on Google in 2026?
On a clean SERP with no AI Overview, position 1 earns about 39.8% of clicks. When an AI Overview is present, position 1 falls to roughly 13–20%, a 58% reduction.
How often do AI Overviews appear in Google results?
AI Overviews appear on approximately 48–50% of US search queries, with coverage ranging from 88% in healthcare to about 4% in e-commerce.
Do top-10 rankings still predict AI Overview citations?
No. Overlap between top-10 organic rankings and AI Overview citations has fallen from about 76% in 2024 to 17–38% in 2026, so 62–83% of citations go to pages outside the top 10.
Are mobile and desktop CTRs moving the same way?
No. Desktop CTR for the top five positions grew a combined 10.54 percentage points, while mobile position 1 declined 2.20 pp (3.07 pp for unbranded queries).